2013 has been a buoyant year for US equities and aside from a few sputters, the rally continues. The big question is do we see a sizzle, a snooze or even a meltdown from here on out? A sizzle -and a quick move higher- is unlikely, a snooze is more likely before we resume the upward climb to the 1744 level on the S&P 500 by year end. A big market correction or meltdown very often is a result of an unexpected event appearing on the horizon. Perhaps this risk will be limited going forward precisely because such events – a slowdown in China or tapering in the US are already known. I am still positive on US equities, however I am more comfortable shifting the allocation from overweight US equities to a more balanced US-European equities mix. Over the next two quarters, European equities offer a better return than US equities. Emerging Market (EM) equities have stopped declining as more long-term money finds its way back to these countries. Japan is a structural long trade, if you can stomach the volatility.
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